Anthropic is rising in private markets, but SpaceX might soon overshadow their current success

Since 2010, Glen Anderson has been involved in brokering private company shares—a time when only a handful of institutional investors focused on late-stage markets. Now, he notes that those numbers have grown to include thousands.

As the president of Rainmaker Securities—an investment bank specializing in private securities with transactions across nearly 1,000 stocks—Anderson is witnessing a tense, historic period in the secondary market. Currently, he points out that the primary focus of this unfolding story centers on three key companies: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.

However, the actual situation is more complex than what the headlines indicate. Anderson’s perspective on Anthropic aligns with a recent Bloomberg report, which highlights an overwhelming demand for the company’s shares. Bloomberg cited Ken Smythe, the CEO of Next Round Capital, noting that while buyers are ready to invest $2 billion into Anthropic, roughly $600 million worth of OpenAI shares remain on the market without finding any interested takers.

Anderson has observed a similar trend at Rainmaker. Speaking with TechCrunch yesterday from his home in Miami, he mentioned that Anthropic has become the most difficult stock to acquire in their market, simply because no one is willing to sell their shares.

Anderson contends that the surge in demand was partly fueled by Anthropic’s highly visible conflict with the Department of Defense. Although this situation initially appeared problematic for the firm, it eventually proved to be beneficial. He noted that the app’s popularity grew as people began to view the company as a hero for challenging the government, which strengthened its reputation and further set it apart from OpenAI.

This distinction is carrying more weight for investors who are moving away from the long-standing strategy of investing in every player. Anderson observes that while many institutional investors still aim to have stakes in both Anthropic and OpenAI, since it’s unclear which AI model will come out on top, the momentum in the secondary market has clearly changed direction.

This doesn’t imply that OpenAI’s standing has drastically collapsed. Anderson suggests avoiding a strictly “either-or” interpretation of the current market. While he believes it isn’t a choice between one or the other, he admits that the same level of enthusiasm is missing, noting that the market for OpenAI isn’t nearly as active or energetic as it is for Anthropic at the moment.

Regarding valuation, Anderson generally backed the Bloomberg report stating that OpenAI shares in the secondary market are trading at a valuation of roughly $765 billion. This reflects a notable decrease compared to the company’s recent primary-round valuation of $852 billion. Although he noted that he was speaking from memory, he confirmed that the figure reported by Bloomberg was “in the right range.”

OpenAI is actively working to gain tighter oversight of secondary market trading. A company spokesperson advised Bloomberg that individuals should be very careful with firms claiming to offer OpenAI equity, particularly via Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs). They noted that the company has set up official, fee-free channels through banks to provide an alternative to what they call the high-fee broker system.

According to Bloomberg, it is quite revealing that banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are currently providing OpenAI shares to their wealthy clients without any carry fees. In contrast, Goldman Sachs continues to apply its standard carry fee—typically ranging from 15% to 20% of the profits—for clients looking to invest in Anthropic.

However, none of these comparisons take SpaceX into account, a company that remains resilient despite the changing attitudes toward other major brands. Anderson points out that SpaceX is one of the rare entities in Rainmaker’s portfolio that avoided the severe market downturn seen between 2022 and 2024. During that time, while many private firms watched their valuations plummet by 60% to 70% following a period of rapid growth, SpaceX managed to hold its ground.

According to Anderson, the rocket and satellite giant has shown steady and consistent growth. While he admits to having a financial interest in the company’s success, he praises SpaceX’s management for their strategic pricing and for not trying to extract maximum profit from every funding round. He noted that many companies often make the mistake of pushing their stock prices too high during each round, which unfortunately leaves no margin for error if things go wrong.

In contrast, SpaceX took a cautious approach by avoiding excessive greed, which has resulted in massive returns for its early backers. Anderson pointed out that those who invested back in 2015 are likely looking at incredible gains on their investment today.

To illustrate the scale of those gains: SpaceX was valued at approximately $12 billion in 2015, following a $1 billion joint investment from Google and Fidelity. An investor from that period is now looking at returns exceeding 100x, as the company’s valuation has surpassed $1 trillion ahead of its upcoming IPO.

It appears that the IPO is now fast approaching. SpaceX filed for an initial public offering confidentially this week, paving the way for one of the most significant market debuts ever. Reports suggest Elon Musk intends to raise $50 billion to $75 billion, potentially as early as June. This scale is comparable only to Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut, which saw the energy titan valued at $1.7 trillion.

According to Anderson, the rumors of the filing have already shifted the dynamics of the SpaceX secondary market. He noted a sudden surge in buyers asking for SpaceX shares, but the supply is becoming scarce. As a company nears its IPO, current shareholders are less likely to sell, knowing that a major liquidity event is just around the corner.

This is where the situation becomes more challenging for OpenAI and Anthropic. Both firms are reportedly considering their own public offerings and have indicated they might proceed within this year. However, by filing first, SpaceX is set to significantly test investor interest, and Anderson suggests that any company following in its wake could find itself at a disadvantage.

“SpaceX is going to absorb a huge portion of the available liquidity,” he remarked bluntly. “The amount of capital designated for IPOs is limited.” The first company to enter the market gets the primary access to funds; those who delay their entry not only face more intense examination but also the risk of having less capital available to them.

This trend is visible in every industry sector, and AI companies are no exception, even with the immense spotlight currently on them. Launching an IPO too soon means you have to be the one to gauge the market’s mood. However, if you wait for a competitor to go first, you risk discovering that the largest pools of capital have already been claimed.

You can catch more of our conversation with Anderson in the next episode of the StrictlyVC Download podcast, released every Tuesday. While you wait, feel free to listen to our latest episodes, featuring guests like Whoop CEO Will Ahmed and renowned investor Bill Gurley.